A recent examination of Ballotpedia sheds light on the tumultuous state of U.S. politics, particularly within the confines of Congress.
Thirty-seven Congress members — seven U.S. senators and 30 U.S. House members — declared they would not seek reelection in 2024, marking a notable increase from previous election cycles.
Among the U.S. Senate members opting out of reelection bids, six — Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Tom Carper (D-Del.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — have chosen to retire from public office.
In contrast, U.S. Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) is set to run for governor of Indiana.
Meanwhile, the 30 U.S. House members not seeking reelection in 2024 present diverse career shifts. Notably, 11 — two Republicans and nine Democrats — are vying for U.S. Senate seats, while one Democrat is eyeing the gubernatorial position. Two, representing both major parties, have set their sights on state attorney general positions. Sixteen members — equally split between Democrats and Republicans — are retiring from public service altogether.
This wave of departures from Congress is indicative of a broader trend, with 30 U.S. House members surpassing the 24 who had made similar announcements at this point in the 2022 election cycle. Comparisons to previous cycles underscore the magnitude of the current political landscape, as 27 members had made such announcements at this point in the 2020 cycle and 31 at this stage in the 2018 cycle.
The seven U.S. Senators foregoing reelection bids represent a numeric increase from the six who had announced their retirements at this juncture in the 2022 election cycle. Historical comparisons reveal that four did so in 2020 and two in 2018.
Ballotpedia, a comprehensive resource on U.S. elections, features a list of incumbent members of the 118th U.S. Congress not seeking reelection in the upcoming 2024 congressional elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. It also includes a section chronicling members who have left or announced their departure before the end of their terms.
The New York Times reported about the surge of lawmakers across party lines and chambers opting to exit Congress. This departure coincides with a remarkable dysfunction on Capitol Hill, primarily due to internal conflict within the House Republicans. The GOP majority has grappled with leadership changes, internal disputes in selecting a new speaker, and challenges maintaining federal funding. Further, right-wing members have opposed spending legislation, escalating tensions within the party.
This turmoil has raised concerns among Republicans about the potential loss of their slim House majority in the upcoming elections, a worry that traditionally triggers a surge in retirements from the controlling party. However, the trend extends beyond the GOP, as Democrats also witnessed a notable uptick in retirements, surpassing those of the past three election cycles.
While many departing members are from outside competitive seats, the razor-thin margins in both chambers underscore the significance of those providing pickup opportunities for either party. These departures could determine which party will control Congress in 2025.
“I like the work, but the politics just no longer made it worth it,” remarked Rep. Earl Blumenauer, a Democrat from Oregon who announced his retirement last month after more than 25 years in the House.
Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko of Arizona echoed Blumenauer’s sentiment during the recent speaker fight.
“Right now, Washington, D.C., is broken,” Lesko said. “It is hard to get anything done.”
