There is a lot of research showing that lead exposure, particularly for children, is related to increased criminal activity later. The heavy metal neurotoxin is—obviously—not the sole cause of crime, and researchers have reached different conclusions about exactly how closely the two are linked. But dozens of studies have concluded that the two are connected.
Cities where people were drinking lead-contaminated water in the early 20th century had, on average, nearly 25% higher violent crime rates than similar cities with iron pipes or non-corrosive water, according to a 2016 study published in the journal Explorations in Economic History. Importantly, that study looked at the crime rates 20 years after the pipes were initially installed in these cities—when the generation of exposed kids began reaching adulthood.
And in the District, this is incredibly relevant, because between 2000 and 2004, D.C. experienced one of the worst lead in water crises the U.S. has ever seen. Four times more kids in the District had high levels of lead in their blood during this time, compared to the years before the water treatment problem. Miscarriages and fetal death spiked, too.
Fast forward approximately 20 years: our city saw 274 people killed in confirmed homicides in 2023, the highest rate since 1997. Correlation isn’t causation, but the science is pretty clear that the two are connected. But few people—and basically no city leaders—seem to be talking about lead at all.
Meanwhile, DC Water’s plan for a “Lead-Free DC” has nowhere near enough funding to meet its goal of eliminating the District’s lead service lines by 2030; at its current rate the task would take another 30 years. Only about 30% of D.C. kids get tested for lead, and even fewer are screened on time (all children should have two tests before the age of two!).
If we’re interested in a safer, healthier future for the District, our conversations about crime prevention cannot continue to leave out lead.